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    当前金融危机和经济危机的起因(上)

    当前金融危机和经济危机的起因 

     

     

     


           发生在美国的金融危机,很快发展成为国际金融危机。

            这场金融危机来势猛,扩散和蔓延的速度快,规模大,破坏力强。面对这场似乎是突如其来的社会灾难,很多人就像面对突如其来的风暴、飓风、海啸、地震和瘟疫等自然灾难一样,深感恐惧。因而,金融风暴金融飓风金融海啸金融地震金融瘟疫等现在成了国内外媒体和人们口头使用频率极高的词语。
      
          
    这场严重的金融危机很快发展成为严重的经济危机。
      
          
    但是,对当前经济危机的来势、扩散和蔓延的速度、规模、破坏力等,有人看来还没有足够的估计和认识。有人甚至似乎还没有注意到金融危机已经发展成严重的经济危机这一基本事实,在说到当前的危机时,还只说金融危机,而不说经济危机。

            考察当前这场金融危机和经济危机,必然要研究和分析危机的起因、危机的发展、危机的根源、危机的救助和危机的前景等一系列问题,必然要思考与之密切相关的一系列理论和政策问题。这么多问题在一篇短文中是不易说清楚的,本文只考察当前金融危机和经济危机的起因,其他相关问题随后将陆续讨论。这里说的危机的起因是指危机的初始原因,不是指危机的根源。

    一、克林顿——布什的美国梦
      
           
    这场金融危机和经济危机起始于美国次贷危机。次贷危机导致了金融危机,金融危机导致了经济危机,而经济危机反过来又加深了金融危机。
      
           
    次贷危机是指次级信用住房抵押贷款危机。美国经营住房抵押贷款业务的银行和其他金融机构按照借款人经济状况划分信用等级。例如,发放给信誉记录好、有固定工作、有稳定收入、债务轻、风险小的借款人的住房抵押贷款,被列为优级贷款。相反,发放给信誉记录不好、没有固定工作、没有稳定收入、债务重、风险大的借款人的住房抵押贷款,被列为次级贷款,简称次贷。
      
          
    在各类贷款中,抵押贷款的利率高,偿还条件严。在抵押贷款中,次级贷款利率更高,偿还条件更严。
      
           
    在美国这样一个典型的资本主义国家,经营住房抵押贷款的金融机构为了自身的金融安全,完全可以只发放优级贷款,而不发放次级贷款。为什么这些金融机构却冒很大风险热衷于发放次级贷款呢?
      
          
    这里有必要从源头说起。
      
           
    二战后,在西方国家,国家干预主义处于主流地位。在资本主义市场经济中,除了市场调节,同时存在政府调节。不仅宏观经济领域存在政府调节,而且微观经济领域也存在政府调节。例如,在金融业中,存在政府调节金融的政策,也就是我们的媒体现在说的政府对金融的监管。
      
            20
    世纪60年代末70年代初,在西方国家,新自由主义思潮上升到主流地位。新自由主义的核心内容是私有化、自由化和非调控化(deregulation)。 美国约翰逊政府对房利美公司实行私有化。里根政府实行经济自由化,取消或放松微观经济领域的政府调控。其中包括在金融业中实行金融自由化,取消或放松对金融业的调控,即取消或放松监管。
      
          
    克林顿政府提出要大力提高住房自有率,要让穷人也能圆上美国梦
      
           
    布什进一步描述了美国梦。他表示,将加快推动美国社会福利制度的改革,致力于建设一个所有权社会”——“人人拥有住房的社会。(《华盛顿邮报》2008914)布什的这番承诺比克林顿的提高住房自有率似乎更为动听,更有新意。其实,在布什之前,英国撒切尔已经倡导建设财产所有制社会,并且为她的继任者所继承。
      
            
    除了克林顿的提高住房自有率和布什的建设所有权社会,美国共和党党纲也提出扩大住房所有权,美国国会也赞成实现更多房屋所有权,美联储主席格林斯潘也提出让买不起住房的美国人买得起住房。所有这些,对制造美国梦都起了相当大的推动作用。

           有人看不清楚这种美国梦的实质,误以为这是居者有其屋的人类理想在美国的实现。
      
           
    在这里,了解一下房利美和房地美等和其他金融公司是如何实现提高住房自有率和扩大住房所有权,让美国买不起住房的人圆上美国梦的,将有助于认清这种美国梦的实质。

    二、次贷证券业巨头是克林顿——布什美国梦政策的关键参与者和实施者
      
           
    美国抵押贷款融资机构的两巨头房利美和房地美,是克林顿政府提高住房自有率政策和布什政府建设所有权社会政策的关键参与机构,是克林顿布什美国梦工程的主要实施者。

            房利美(Fannie Mae)的全称是联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Federal National Mortgage Association),房地美(Freddie Mac)的全称是联邦住房抵押贷款公司(Federal Home Mortgage Corporation)。在美国,它们是规模最大的两家住房抵押贷款融资机构。我国媒体现在常简称之为两房
      
           
    房利美建立于1938年,它是20世纪30年代大萧条时期罗斯福新政的产物。大萧条中,美国住房市场崩溃。罗斯福政府成立房利美的目的,是为住房抵押贷款筹措资金,扩大住房贷款的资金供给,以求渡过严重的房市危机和经济危机。房利美能得到美国政府的财政支持,可以从美联储和国外投资者那里获得低利率借款,因而能够提供固定利率抵押贷款。房利美从成立时起,直到1968年被私有化前,一直是联邦政府的一个机构。
      
           
    美国住房抵押贷款市场分为一级市场和二级市场。在住房抵押贷款的一级市场,借贷双方以金融工具为媒介,进行住房抵押交易,实现资金融通。借方是申请贷款的购房者,贷方是经营抵押贷款的金融机构,作为借贷双方媒介的金融工具是抵押信贷工具,例如固定利率抵押贷款、可调整利率抵押贷款等。这种金融工具是证明双方债务和债权关系、证明双方义务和权利的合法凭证。二级市场以一级市场的抵押贷款为担保,发行抵押贷款证券,投入流通。抵押贷款证券化是一项金融创新,抵押贷款证券是从金融原生工具或金融原生产品如固定利率或可调整利率抵押贷款衍生而来的金融衍生工具或金融衍生产品。
      
           
    罗斯福政府成立房利美,尝试开发二级抵押贷款市场。房利美开始经营大宗抵押贷款的买卖:当市场利率提高、金融机构资金短缺时,房利美买进抵押贷款,向金融机构注资;相反,当市场利率降低、金融机构资金过剩时,房利美卖出抵押贷款,给金融机构提供投资机会。在20世纪30年代大萧条中,房利美在抵押贷款市场上起过某种缓解金融危机和经济危机的作用。
      
            1968
    年,约翰逊政府将房利美私有化。已经有30年历史的房利美的性质和作用在资本主义市场经济范围内发生了重大变化。自这时起,房利美成为美国独一无二的抵押贷款融资业巨头。房利美既是私人公司,又是政府特许机构。作为私人公司,它以追求高额利润为目的;作为政府特许机构,背后有政府支持,享有免税特权,还可以设法逃避监管。在二级抵押贷款市场上,房利美是一个名副其实的垄断组织。
      
           
    房地美成立于1970年。这是仅次于房利美的美国又一家住房抵押贷款融资业巨头。正是在这一年,美国抵押贷款市场第一次推出住房抵押贷款证券。后来影响深远的抵押贷款证券化由此开始。成立房地美的目的,除了为平衡财政预算,据称是为了防止住房抵押贷款市场的进一步垄断化。实际上,美国住房抵押贷款市场的垄断程度并没有因为房地美的成立而削弱,只不过是由房利美和房地美的双头垄断代替了房利美的独家垄断。
      
           
    在现代资本主义世界,垄断组织与国家和政府之间存在着相互支持、相互利用和相互渗透的密切关系。垄断组织需要国家和政府的支持,国家和政府也需要垄断组织的支持。垄断企业的代理人可以进入政府担任要职,政府重要官员离任后可以进入垄断企业担任要职。这些已是人们熟知的事。但是,对于房利美和房地美与美国政府和议会之间的密切关系,人们过去知之不多。

           当前这场金融危机爆发后,美国媒体对房利美和房地美与政府和国会的密切关系有所揭露。例如,《华盛顿邮报》发表的一篇题为《华盛顿怎样失去了对房利美和房地美的控制》的文章披露:房利美首席执行官在一次会议上说:我们管控政治风险的力度不亚于管控信贷风险和利率风险。这句话说得多么坦白,一家私营公司,竟然要管控政治风险。对此,《华盛顿邮报》的这篇文章做了解释:房利美和房地美兼具政府机构和私营公司的优势,利用高额利润拉拢本该对它们加以控制的政界人士。房利美和房地美已经深深进入华盛顿的政治结构。一方面,它们是前政府官员发财致富、同时等待在联邦政府担任新职的去处;另一方面,房利美高管合同的条款规定,如果高管离开公司去担任公职,可以得到高额退职福利金。房利美和房地美控制政界人士的重要目的,是让它们自己不受监管,以利于它们赚取高额利润。上述文章说:华盛顿普遍认为,房利美和房地美的成功与住房自有率的提高密不可分。国会虽然名义上决定成立了一个名为联邦住房企业监督办公室的管理机构,但是根本没有实权和实力对房利美和房地美进行监管。这篇文章引用该管理机构的报告说,房利美和房地美是自己管理自己。(《华盛顿邮报》2008914)这就是说,对房利美和房地美实际上不存在政府监管。
      
           
    房利美和房地美需要美国政府的支持,美国政府也需要房利美和房地美的支持。现在,美国媒体对房利美和房地美与美国政界的关系表现出浓厚的兴趣。据报道,房利美和房地美过去十年花费巨资游说重要政治人士,在美国政坛购买影响力。这两家公司的钱没有白花,它们在华盛顿确实买到了不少影响力。这种影响力确能让它们不受监管地追逐高额利润。
      
           
    克林顿提高住房自有率计划不仅需要房利美和房地美的参与和支持,而且需要依靠它们来具体实施。因此,促进房利美和房地美的扩张,是克林顿政府提高住房自有率计划的一项关键内容。克林顿政府的住房与城市发展部部长说:我们开始把提高住房自有率作为美国这一历史时期的明确目标。房利美和房地美成为该计划的一部分。(《华盛顿邮报》2008914
      
           
    同样,布什建设所有权社会计划也不仅需要房利美和房地美的参与和支持,而且也需要依靠它们来实施。布什总统承诺创造一个人人拥有住房的社会,房利美和房地美则在帮助政府实现让1000多万美国人拥有自己第一套住房的目标。(《华盛顿邮报》2008914

    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

    清洁发展机制,简称CDM(Clean Development Mechanism),是《京都议定书》中引入的灵活履约机制之一。

      CDM允许附件1缔约方与非附件1缔约方联合开展二氧化碳等温室气体减排项目。这些项目产生的减排数额可以被附件1缔约方作为履行他们所承诺的限排或减排量。 对发达国家而言,CDM提供了一种灵活的履约机制;而对于发展中国家,通过CDM项目可以获得部分资金援助和先进技术。但是,CDM只能作为全球减排和技术转让的手段之一。实现真正意义上的减排和技术转让还需要发达国家做出更多的努力。  

    参与方

     

      清洁发展机制允许附件I国家在非附件I国家的领土上实施能够减少温室气体排放或者通过碳封存或碳汇作用从大气中消除温室气体的项目,并据此获得经核证的减排量,即通常所说的CER。附件I国家可以利用项目产生的CER抵减本国的温室气体减排义务。

    CDM项目必须满足:

    (1)获得项目涉及到的所有成员国的正式批准;

    (2)促进项目东道国的可持续发展;

    (3) 在缓解气候变化方面产生实在的、可测量的、长期的效益。CDM项目产生的减排量还必须是任何无此CDM项目条件下产生的减排量的额外部分。

      参与CDM的国家必须满足一定的资格标准。所有的CDM参与成员国必须符合三个基本要求:自愿参与CDM;建立国家级,CDM主管机构;批准《京都议定书》;

      工业化国家还必须满足几个更严格的规定:完成《京都议定书》第3条规定的分配排放数量;建立国家级的温室气体排放评估体系;建立国家级的CDM项目注册机构;提交年度清单报告;为温室气体减排量的买卖交易建立一个账户管理系统。

       

    符合的项目

    CDM将包括如下方面的潜在项目:
       1 改善终端能源利用效率;
       2 改善供应方能源效率;
       3 可再生能源;
       4 替代燃料;
       5 农业(甲烷和氧化亚氮减排项目);
       6 工业过程(水泥生产等减排二氧化碳项目,减排氢氟碳化物、全氧化碳或六氟化硫的项目);
       7 碳汇项目(仅适用于造林和再造林项目)

    禁止附件I国家利用核能项目产生的CER来达到其减排目标。此外,在第一个承诺期(20082012年), 只允许造林和再造林项目作为碳汇项目,并且在承诺期每一年内,附件1国家用于完成他们分配排放数量的、来自碳汇项目的CER至多不超出其基准排放量的l%。碳汇项目还需要制定出更详尽的指南以确保其环境友好性。

     

      为了使小项目能和大项目一样在CDM项目上具有竞争力,《马拉喀什协定》为小规模项目的实施建立了快速通道在一套简化的资格评审标准一15兆瓦以上的可再生能源项目、在供应方或需求方年节能 15吉瓦时以上的能效项目、年度排放量低于 1.5万吨二氧化碳当量且具有减排效果的其他项目。CDM执行理事会已经被赋予了一项任务:为小项目快速通道制定执行方式和工作程序,并将其提交给 2002 10月在新德里召开的第八次《联合国气候变化框架公约 》成员国大会(COP 8)。


     

      禁止发达国家挪用官方发展援助资金用于CDM项目,用于CDM项目的资金必须是官方发展援助之外的资金。此外,对CDM项目产生的CER还将征收2%的收益税建立新的适应基金,用于帮助对气候变化影响特别脆弱的发展中国家适应气候变化的不利影响。

    另一项针对CER的征税用拼补CDM的管理成本。为了引导CDM项目在发展中国家公正地分布,最不发达国家的CDM项目将免征用于适崛金和管理费用的赋税。

     

    执行理事会

     

      执行理事会负责监管CDM的实施,并对成员国大会负责。执行理事会由10个专家组成,其中5个专家分别代表5个联合国官方区域(非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲、加勒比海地区、中东欧、OECD
    家),1个专家来自小岛国组织,2个专家来自附件I国家,2个专家来自非附件I国家。执行理事会在200111月马拉喀什政治谈判期间召开了首次会议,这标志着CDM的正式启动。

      执行理事会授权一种称之为经营实体的独立组织对申报的CDM项目进行审查,核实项目产生的减排量,并签署减排信用文件证明使这些减排量成为CER。执行理事会的另一个关键任务就是维持CDM活动的注册登记,包括签发新产生的CER、为征收的用于适应资金和管理费用的ER建立管理账户,为每一个CDM项目东道国的非附件I国家注册一个CER账户并予以定期管理。


    项目识别和表述

     

      CDM项目周期的第一步是对潜在CDM项目的识别和表述。一个CDM项目必须具有真实的、可测量的、额外的减排效果。为了确定项目是否具有额外性,必须将潜在项目的排放量同一个合理的称之为基准线的参考情景的排放量相比较~项目参与者应该采用经批准的方法依据项目的具体情况制定基准线。这些确定基准线的方法是在《马拉喀什协定》框架下的三个方法的基础上发展而来的:
      1 现实的实际排放量或历史排放量;
      2 经济上有投资吸引力的代表性技术的排放水平;
      3 过去5年来类似环境申排放性能最好的20%的类似项目的平均排放水平。

      CDM项目还必须有一个监测计划以收集准确的排放数据。监测计划构成了未来核实的基础,它必须具有很高的置信度以保证CDM项目的减排量以及其他项目目标确实得以实现。监测计划还应该有能力监控项目基准线及其排放量失败的风险。监测计划既可由项目开发者也可由专门机构制定。排放基准线和监测计划必须根据经批准的方法来设计。如果项目参与者偏好一种新的方法,则该方法必须经由执行理事会批准和登记。项目参与者可以自行选择项目的 CER获得时限:10年;或者7年,但可能延续两次并重新确认基准线(最长21年)。

     


    国家批准

     

      所有希望参与CDM的国家必须指定一个国家CDM主管机构负责评估和批准CDM项目,并作为CDM活动的联络总站。尽管国际操作规程就基准线和额外性提出了通用的指导原则,但每个发展中国家有责任确定本国的项目批准标准。项目东道国和投资者还必须准备撰写如下格式的项目设计文件:

      1 项目的一段描述;
      2 阐述基准线确定方法;
      3 项目时间表和CER获得期限;
      4 监测方法和计划;
      5 分排放源计算温室气体排放量;
      6 环境影响评价;
      7 利益相关者对项目的意见;

      国家CDM主管机构必须签发的文件邮:政府自愿参与项目,并确信项目活动符合东道国的可持续发展目标。

     

    CDM项目周期

     

    项目描述;基准线方法;监测方法/计划;温室气体排放;环境影响评价;利益相关者的意见。国家CDM主管机构;政府批准;政府确信项目符合可持续发展。

     

    CDM项目周期如图所示有7个基本步骤:项目设计和描述;国家批准;审查登记;项目融资;监测;核实/认证和签发CER。前4个步骤在项目实施之前必须完成,后3个步骤发生在项目的CER获得期间。

     

    审查与登记

     

      然后,指定的经营实体将考察项目设计文件,并经公众评议后,决定是否批准该项目作为CDM项目。这些经营实体中,有代表性的将是一些私人公司,如审计和会计事务所、有能力独立可靠地评估减排量的咨询公司和法律事务所。如果项目得到批准,经营实体会将项目设计文件上呈执行理事会以获得正式登记

     

    监测、核实和认证

     

      一个碳减排项目如果没有经过指定的核实程序专门测量和审计其碳排放,就不可能在国际碳排放市场上转让其碳量以获取价值。因此,一旦CDM项目进入运作阶段,项目参与者就必须准备
    一个监测报告估算项目产生的CER,并提交给一个经营实体申请核实。

     

    核实是由经营实体独立完成的,它是对监测报告上的减排量进行事后鉴定。经营实体必须查明产生的CER是否符合项目的原始批准书标明的原则和条件。通过详细的审查之后,经营实体将提出一个核实报告并对孩CDM项目产生的CER的量予以确认。

      认证是对一个项目产生的经核实的减排效果的书面保证书。认证报告还包括要求签发 CER的申请书。如果在 15天之内,任何一个项目参与者或者三个以上执行理事会成员没有要求重新审查该项目,则执行理事会将指令CDM登记处签发CER

      

    B/L Terms (1) Definitions

     
    1.Definitions
     
    "Carrier" means the party named in the signature Box on the face of B/L. If it is ultimately adjudged that a second person or entity, including without limitation, the Vessel, her owner, operator, demise, time, slot and space charterer and/or another member of an alliance and/or consortium and/or joint arrangement of which the Carrier may be a member, is also a carrier/bailee then that person or entity shall have the benefit of all the rights and defenses provided for in this Bill of Lading or by law.
     
    Notice is hereby given that Carrier is a member of alliances and/or consortia and/or joint arrangements. The members of such groups, including Carrier, reserve the right to carry cargo for each other, and otherwise cooperate with each other in the carriage of cargo, without notice to the Merchant. In the case of such carriage, however, the terms and conditions of this Bill of Lading shall apply, and the Merchant shall be bound by them and Carrier shall be deemed in all instances to be the Carrier of the Goods, subject to the terms and conditions of this Bill of Lading.
     
    "Merchant" includes any person who at any time has been or becomes the Shipper, Holder, Conignee,Receiver of the Goods, any Person who owns or is possession of the Goods or of this Bill of Lading and any Person acting on behalf of any of such Person.
     
    "Holder" means any person for the time being in possession of ( or entitled to the possession of ) this Bill of Lading.
     
    "Person" includes an individual,group,company or other entity.
     
    "Sub-Contractor" includes (but not limited to) owners and operators of any Vessels (other than the Carrier), Stevedores,terminal and groupage operators,road,rall and air transport operators and any independent contractor empoyed by the Carrier in performance of the Carriage and any sub-contractors thereof.
     
    "VESSEL" shall include the vessel(s) named in this Bill of Lading, any substituted vessel(s), any vessel to which transhipment may be made in the performance of this contract and any vessel, craft, lighter or other means of transportation whatsoever, owned, chartered, operated or controlled and used by the Carrier or Participating Carrier in the performance of this contract;
     
    "GOODS" means the cargo received from the Shipper and includes any Container not supplied by or on behalf of the Carrier; "HOLDER" means any person for the time being in possession of this Bill of Lading to whom the property interest in the Goods has passed on or by reason of the consignment of the Goods or the endorsement of this Bill of Lading or otherwise;
     
    "PARTICIPATING CARRIER" shall include any other sea, water, land or air carrier performing any part of the carriage provided herein;
     
    "CONTAINER" includes any container, trailer, transportable tank, flat, pallet, cradle, sled or any similar article of transport used to consolidate or transport Goods;
     
    "LADEN ON BOARD", when noted on this Bill of Lading shall mean that the Goods have been placed on board the Vessel or any other mode of transport used by or on behalf of the Carrier or Participating Carrier enroute to the Port of Loading shown on the face of this Bill of Lading;
     
    "PORT OF LOADING" shall mean the place where the Goods are received for marine transport by the Carrier; or Participating Carrier or their respective agents,
     
    "PORT OF DISCHARGE" shall mean the place where the Goods are to be discharged from the Vessel; "PLACE OF RECEIPT" shall be the place where the Goods are received from the Merchant by the Carrier, Participating Carrier or their respective agents;
     
    "PLACE OF DELIVERY" shall be the place where the Goods are delivered by the Carrier or the Participating Carrier to the Merchant;
     
    "COGSA" refers to the Carriage of Goods by Sea Act of the United States approved April 16, 1936 and any subsequent modifications or re-enactment thereto.
     
    "HAGUE RULES" refers to the International Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules Relating to Bills of Lading done at Brussels August 25, 1924; "HAGUE-VISBY" refers to the Hague Rules as Amended by the Protocol done at Brussels on February 23, 1968. References to the internal law of a State shall be deemed to exclude all principles of private international law applied by such State;
     
    "STATE" shall mean any nation, country, commonwealth, territory or possession, internationally recognized to be a body politic and to exercise sovereign power;
     
    "COMBINED TRANSPORT" arises if the Place of Receipt and/or Place of Delivery are indicated on the face of this Bill of Lading in the relevant boxes; and
     
    "PORT TO PORT TRANSPORT" arises if only the Port of Loading and/or Port of Discharge are indicated on the face of this Bill of Lading in the relevant boxes.
     
     

    The Return of Workers' Rights?

    With Democrats now running the congressional show, labor groups who turned out the vote are primed for payback. How much will they get? This was the election that got Eileen Fonesca fired up. A clerk at a supermarket in Broomall, Pa., and a member of the United Food & Commercial Workers Local 1776, Fonesca knocked on doors, called voters, and carried signs supporting Democratic candidates.

    Her motivation? "I'm doing this for others who are living on the minimum wage, my children, and for myself," said Fonesca, 55, who considers the future of Social Security at risk. "I find it hard to believe; I know too many people who are struggling. The government is endorsing tax breaks for the wealthy and sending jobs overseas. That is wrong."

    Dividends for Foot Soldiers.

    Among U.S. workers, Fonesca is hardly alone in that view. This week, when a restive electorate snatched control of Congress from the GOP, hundreds of thousands of union members helped fuel the Democrats' turnout engine. Exit polls show that the nonunion vote was an even split for Democrats and Republicans, while 68% of union voters backed Democrats. Union membership may be declining, but come election time, their members are the Democrats' foot soldiers, just as evangelical Christians have long been loyal to Republicans. Given their efforts, organized labor will be looking for political payback from the Democrats they helped send to Washington.

    However, just as unions have been burned before by their political friends—think Bill Clinton's spirited push for NAFTA—it's unclear what kind of dividend they can expect from the Congress that will convene next year. The agendas of the two umbrella labor groups—the AFL-CIO and the Change to Win coalition, representing more than 15 million workers—involve increasing the federal minimum wage, reforming health care and Social Security, and stopping the hemorrhage of jobs to cheaper overseas labor markets. Yet the question remains: How beholden will Democrats be to Big Labor's agenda if union members seem to back them no matter what?

    Not very, some experts contend. "Unions have had to reassess the likely benefits of even successful political action," says Cletus Daniel, a professor at Cornell University's Industrial & Labor Relations School. "A lot of people they've helped elect are not staunch advocates of workers' rights or trade unionism, or willing to take important political risks on their behalf."

    Keeping Tabs

    At the very least, labor leaders say, unions will be able to vacate the political desert of the last four years with a Republican-controlled White House and Congress. The Bush years, a friendly time for business, have included passage of CAFTA (the Central American Free Trade Agreement) and decisions by a hostile National Labor Relations Board, including a ruling expanding the pool of supervisory workers who can't join unions.

    "The victory for Democrats is certainly a victory for working Americans," says Greg Tarpinian, executive director of the Change to Win coalition, which represents 6 million workers in unions such as the SEIU and the Teamsters.

    Still, he said, unions won't automatically throw their get-out-the-vote efforts behind Democrats in future elections. "Change to Win won't be rewarding those who push any basic policy anathema to workers," he said. "We'll be keeping tabs on who's with us and who's against us."

    Labor Agenda

    In the coming days, both Change to Win and the AFL-CIO will publicly roll out their agendas for the new legislative session. Both groups are pushing for a higher minimum wage—which the likely next Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, vows to push. State voters also supported that idea, with higher minimum wages passed this week in all six states that had such a measure on the ballot.

    Another item high on labor's wish list: the Employee Free Choice Act, which requires employers to recognize a union when a majority of workers sign authorization cards. Also known as "card check recognition," the organizing tool allows unions to forgo the election process, which gives employers more time to fight back or appeal the outcome.

    Organized labor will also be looking to protect workers from the vicissitudes of globalization, which many blame for the loss of manufacturing and textile jobs across America. The trend toward exported manufacturing jobs and the rise of lower-paying service-sector jobs is unlikely to reverse, but union leaders hope they can slow it by preventing passage of free trade agreements with Peru and Vietnam and of presidential fast-track authority. Some in Congress also have plans to examine the corporate tax structure, which many labor leaders castigate as providing incentives to move jobs abroad.

    But if the Democrats don't deliver on organized labor's wish list, where might workers turn? Unions and Republicans have had philosophical differences and frosty relations for decades, so for more influence, the unions are likely to keep building alliances among community and religious groups. But for now, union members are savoring the prospect of friendlier times for their ranks. Says Fonesca: "I'm ecstatic at the results." Democrats will hope she and other union members stay that way in the legislative battles to come.

    LME zinc breaks new high on tight supply

     
    Zinc posted a new recorded high official three-month price in the second ring on LME on Monday,with market participants claiming the metal could break $ 5,000/mt before end of 2006.

    Zinc producers may cut output due to the shortage of concs

     
    Zinc producers may force to be cut output as a result of the continued shortage of concentrates.The crsis over the lack of raw materials shows no sign for easing either as plans for new mine capacity may be delayed by a shortage of qualified staff and equipment. Companies are keen to bring new mine capacity on stream as soon as possible to take advantage of record zinc price.
     
    A shortage of qualified labour and equipment may prevent new zinc mining and smelting projects from coming on stream. We think the deficit will translate the into metal cutbacks. We think the ability to start up in the near term is compromised by these factors. Referring to the moves by copper fabricators last year, who shut the production down temporarily due to a lack of copper. you may see the same thing happening in zinc industry.

    Euro zinc premium jumps

     
    The shortage of zinc in Europe has forced premiums ever higher, with traders and producers claiming that those caught short of material are being forced to pay premiums as high as $180 per tonne.Spot zinc premiums rose to $160-180 per tonne over London Metal Exchange cash basis fot ex-Rotterdam for special high grade (SHG) from $130-135 per tonne earlier in March and $100-105 per tonne in December. On a delivered basis, premiums exceed $200 to trade as high as $220 per tonne.Demand is normal. It's more availability that's where the problems is, commented a source at a European producer. There's a physical shortage of zinc.
     
    Record zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange have triggered a spate of panic buying by some consumers. On Friday, three-month zinc prices reached all-time highs when it closed the final kerb session at $2,589 per tonne.Everybody in the market is paying this,"
     
    With the high zinc price, there is some panic buying as people see prices go up.Zinc's strong performance has come at a time of supply disruptions and production cutbacks across the globe. Production at the San Luis Potosi zinc refinery of Industrial Minera Mexico SA de CV, a Grupo Mexico SA de CV subsidiary, as well as the closure of Korea Zinc's closure of Big River Zinc have affected supplies.

    In Europe, MHD Sudamin closed last summer and Umicore has now stopped producing continuous galvanizing grade (CGG) zinc.The price increase has come at the same time as record prices on the LME and a significant drawdown of stocks. On Monday, stocks fell a further 425 tonnes to 305,100 tonnes, their lowest level since July 2001.

     

     

    Giá điện sẽ tăng khoảng 9% trong năm 2006

    Theo đó, có 4 phương án tăng giá điện với giá bán điện bình quân là 852 đồng/kWh (tăng 8,8% so với giá hiện hành) để trình Chính phủ:

    Phương án 1: Không tăng giá bán điện cho đối tượng sản xuất, giá bán buôn điện sinh hoạt nông thôn, giá bán điện sinh hoạt bậc thang đối với 100kWh đầu tiên. Do các đối tượng không tăng giá chiếm tới 75% tổng sản lượng điện thương phẩm, nên để đảm bảo mức tăng bình quân chung 18,8%, các đối tượng còn lại (chiếm 25% tổng sản lượng điện thương phẩm) sẽ phải chịu mức tăng bình quân 20% so với giá hiện hành. Đối với điện sinh hoạt bậc thang, do giá bán điện không tăng đối với 100kWh đầu tiên nên để đảm bảo mức tăng bình quân điện sinh hoạt bậc thang là 20%, các bậc thang sau sẽ phải chịu mức tăng bình quân 35% so với hiện hành.

    Phương án 2: Không tăng giá điện sản xuất giờ bình thường và thấp điểm; tăng 20% giá bán điện giờ cao điểm của tất cả các đối tượng; tăng giá bán buôn điện sinh hoạt nông thôn lên 420 đồng/kWh; chia đôi bậc thang 100kWh đầu đối với điện sinh hoạt bậc thang thành 2 bậc: 50kWh đầu giá 600 đồng/kWh và 50kWh tiếp theo giá 750 đồng/kWh.

    Phương án 3: Tăng giá bán điện sinh hoạt đối với 100kWh đầu tiên lên 630 đồng/kWh. Do tăng giá giờ cao điểm nên bình quân giá điện cho sản xuất sẽ tăng 4%. Giá bán buôn điện sinh hoạt nông thôn tăng 30 đồng/kWh. Giá điện đối với bậc thang 100kWh đầu tăng 110 đồng/kWh.

    Phương án 4: Xoá bỏ sự phân biệt về giá điện sinh hoạt giữa thành thị và nông thôn bằng việc tăng giá bán điện 100kWh đầu điện sinh hoạt bậc thang lên 700 đồng/kWh. Phương án này sẽ khiến giá điện bậc thang 100kWh đầu tăng 150 đồng/kWh. Các bậc thang trên 100kWh tiếp theo có mức tăng bình quân 10%.

    Phôi thép tăng 20-25 USD/tấn

    Theo Hiệp hội Thép Việt Nam, cuối tuần qua giá phôi thép đã tăng thêm 20 USD đến 25 USD/tấn trên khắp các thị trường từ Trung Quốc đến Nga.

    Cụ thể giá phôi thép đã tăng từ 340-345 USD lên 360- 365 USD/tấn. Điều này lại càng gây thêm khó khăn cho các doanh nghiệp sản xuất thép trong nước. Trong khi giá phôi thép tăng thì giá thép bán ra tại thị trường trong nước vẫn rất thấp.Trước ngày 20/2/2006, giá thép cuộn tại thị trường miền Bắc chỉ có 6.800.000đ/tấn (chưa có VAT) và giá thép cây là 6.900.000đ- 7.000.000đ/tấn (chưa có VAT.Giá bán này vẫn thấp hơn giá thành từ 100.000đ- 200.000đ/tấn. Tuy giá bán thấp hơn giá thành, nhưng tiêu thụ vẫn rất chậm. Trong tháng 1/2006, tất cả các doanh nghiệp thuộc Hiệp hội thép chỉ tiêu thụ được 147.000 tấn, bằng khoảng 60% so với tháng 1/2005. Trong đó các doanh nghiệp thuộc Tổng Công ty Thép tiêu thụ được 43.000 tấn bằng 50,7% so với tháng 1/2005 (thấp nhất là thép Thái Nguyên tiêu thụ 12.000 tấn, bằng 38% so với tháng 1/2005). Các liên doanh thuộc Tổng Công ty Thép tiêu thụ được 35.000 tấn bằng đúng 50% so với tháng 1/2005.

    Hiện nay lượng tồn kho của các doanh nghiệp tăng cao trên 300.000 tấn, trong đó riêng Tổng Công ty Thép là 188.000 tấn. Nhiều doanh nghiệp đã phải cắt giảm lương của người lao động.Sang tháng 2/2006, lượng thép tiêu thụ có tăng, nhưng theo ông Phạm Chí Cường - Chủ tịch Hiệp hội thép dự tính thì lượng tiêu thụ toàn Hiệp hội có thể đạt cao nhất là 200.000 tấn, vẫn thấp hơn tháng 2/2005 khoảng 20.000 tấn.Trong khi thị trường thép trầm lắng thì giá phôi lại tăng làm cho các giao dịch nhập phôi về cán thép càng gặp khó khăn hơn. Hiệp hội thép đã nhóm họp và thống nhất từ ngày 20/2/2006 các doanh nghiệp phải tăng giá bán thép thêm 100.000 đ/tấn và đến hôm nay (21/2/2006), theo ông Cường, tất cả các doanh nghiệp đều đã tăng giá bán thép cây lên thêm 100.000 đ/tấn, đạt mức hoà vốn. Riêng thép cuộn không tăng giá được vẫn giữ ở mức 6.800.000đ/tấn, lỗ 200.000đ/tấn. Tại thị trường phía Nam, giá thép cao hơn phía Bắc 150.000 đ/tấn. Bán với giá này các doanh nghiệp đã hoà vốn, một số doanh nghiệp như Vinakyoei (thép Việt - Nhật) bán thép cây với giá 7.300.000 đ/tấn, đã có lãi chút ít.

    LME metals dip on further fund profit taking


    Base metal prices dipped again in nervous, volatile pre-market trading on the London Metal Exchange as investors took profits.
     
    The prices have been up for so long that as soon as the market showed signs of weakness investors took a chance to cover their positions, which in turn encouraged another sell off by funds this morning,” an LME trader said.

    “On top of that, on some base metals we saw inventories inflows,” he added.Aluminium lost $16 to a three-month price of $2,625/30 per tonne from the previous final kerb price of $2,646 per tonne, after the metal’s stocks in LME warehouses rose 1,250 tonnes to 724,125 tonnes. Nervousness amid inventory inflows at the LME keeps prices volatile. Producers have also been seen selling forward,” said Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby/The increase in stocks took place largely due to a 2,325-tonne inflow of aluminium into ingapore.
     
    Lead basis three months slipped $5 to change hands at $1,285/90 per tonne compared with $1,295 per tonne at the end of Thursday kerb trading.Nickel for delivery in three months traded $175 lower at $15,525/600 per tonne.Tin fell to a three-month price of $7,825/75 per tonne from the previous final kerb price of $7,900 per tonne.
     
    Copper bucked the trend as investors bought into earlier price weakness, rising to a three-month price of $4,985/95 per tonne, up $20 from the end of Thursday kerb trading. LME copper stocks fell net 25 tonnes to 99,175 tonnes. Busan warehouses received 1,000 tonnes of copper on Friday but the inflow was offset by deliveries out of Bilbao, Hamburg, Hull, Rotterdam and Singapore. Still, the rise in the price, which pushed the metal closer towards the $5,000-per tonne mark, could cause more speculative technical selling later in the day and create more price volatility, especially with evidence of some further producer forward selling interest, Sternby said/Three-month zinc barely moved from the previous final kerb price of $2,340 per tonne to $2,330/40 per tonne on Friday morning.
     
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     
    Shipping lines to raise freight rates for US-Asia  steel and metals shipments
     
    A group of container shipping lines plan to raise freight charges for shipments of commodities, including metals, from the US to Asia beginning March 15, the Westbound Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (WTSA) group said in a statement. 
     
    The 11 shipping lines, which belong to the WTSA group, will increase freight rates for steel, aluminium, copper and other commodities by $200 per 40-foot container (FEU) and $160 per 20-foot container (TEU) starting March 15, said the statement. The group also intends to increase the freight rates for plastic scrap, chemicals, and resins heading to Asia by US$100 per FEU and $80 per TEU as "a reflection of steadily increasing demand for these cargoes as industrial inputs for Asian manufacturers.
     
    Further details were not immediately available. The WTSA announced in January that it would
    increase freight rates for shipments of scrap metal from the US to Asia on February 15 due to strong demand for scrap in China (MB Jan 13).Members of the WTSA group include Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd Container Line, South Korea’s K-Line, Japan’s NYK Line, Taiwan’s Evergreen
    Marine Corp and China’s Cosco Container Line.

    LME update

    Copper hits new record official at LME on fresh fund interest

    Copper pushed through the low pre-market levels to a new record in the official pricing session at the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday as funds focused on the red metal and zinc but sold other base metals.

    Copper posted $5,066.5/67 per tonne basis three months at the end of the second ring, even through it failed to hit the $5,090 per tonne briefly seen in the morning trading. The metal had ended Monday afternoon kerb trading at $5,060 per tonne.It is still in the uptrend, still buoyant, still looks like there is room to go up, an LME trader said. The move of course is fund driven. They've taken as much profit as they thought they could in the morning and bought in again.

    Zinc basis three months gained $6 to a three-month official of $2,405/06 per tonne, also reversing the morning moves, as decreases in global inventories pushed up the price. LME zinc stocks fell by 1,500 tonnes to total 363,700 tonnes.

    Nickel consolidated pre-market gains, rising to a three-month official of $15,375/380 per tonne from $15,025 on Monday. Nickel had a temporary setback below the $15,000-per-tonne mark on producer forward sales interest and a lack of consumer buying. We expect nickel to make renewed attempts on the upside, but because the market is still in surplus, price action is likely to be volatile, as signs of fundamental improvements in that market are still erratic, said Barclays commodities analyst Ingrid Sternby.

    Aluminium for delivery in three months, which gained some ground in the morning, lost $4 in the official session to change hands at $2,664/65 per tonne in line with recent inflows of metal. Traders said, though, the sentiment is still positive.

    Tin for delivery in three months lost $60 to change hands at $7,725/740 per tonne, down from $7,800 at the previous kerb close.Tin's inventories were also up at 16,060 tonnes, after a 115-tonne inflow of the metal into Singapore, which accounted for the net 100-tonne increase.Still, cancelled LME tin warrants have shot up to 3,500 tonnes. Barclays commodities analysts said this suggested renewed outflows ahead.

    Lead basis three months traded $20 lower compared with the previous final kerb price, at $1,354/55 per tonne. The metal's stocks rose a net 800 tonnes, bringing the total to 63,225 tonnes. Most stock, 775 tonnes, came into the LME's Singapore warehouses.

    LME Hits new high again

    Copper led the charge during official trading on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday as fund-buying forced market participants to cover their short positions, sending prices of the red metal, zinc and lead to fresh record highs. Copper for delivery in three months cruised to $4,726/27 per tonne, from $4,647 at the end of final kerb trading on Tuesday.
     
    "The funds are already long so they know the shorts are out there," one LME trader said of the short covering prompted by persistent fund buying and stubborn long positions. "People have been expecting copper to pull back for ages. They come in in the morning prepared to punt."
    Investment money has been boosting the copper and the rest of the base metals prices steadily for the last couple of years, with the latest rise coming from a return by commodity index funds, according to market sources.

    Renewed index/basket buying by investors pushed base metals to fresh peaks in the case of copper, zinc and lead, while aluminium was at new highs not seen since 1988,” said Robin Bhar, analyst at UBS in London, in his daily report.

    Fund investments in base metals worldwide now total $30 billion, according to a recent report from analysts at Citibank, which estimated the amount deployed in this cycle could be double any previous maximum. Longstanding investors in commodity markets (hedge funds, CTAs, etc) are being joined by long-only funds (mutual funds, pension funds etc) who are making an asset allocation shift, the report said.

    Since commodity markets are tiny compared with conventional asset classes, even a small portion of the traditional funds prove to be relatively massive and outweigh any sort of selling availability, according to several analysts.

    Forward selling by producers, which often tempers any rise, has been largely absent in the current market, traders said. There's been producer [forward] selling in the past, when the market used to move in two ways. Markets don't usually move in a straight line like this, but everybody who's done it in the last two years has lost money,” said a third analyst, referring to Phelps Dodge's recent profit warning due to hedging.

    "Nobody can get in the way of fund buying, said a trader on the ring shortly after the official pricing session on Wednesday. There's nothing left to sell, no natural selling available to the market. Producers have completed their hedging quotas, he added.

    Producers wouldn't sell now," he said, regarding the lack of producer forward selling that often pressures prices. "They love this price.

    Zinc and lead both reached new all-time highs, also. Zinc finished official trading at $2,275/75.5 per tonne, basis three months, up from $2,230, while lead for delivery in three months jumped to $1,373.5/74 per tonne from $1,338 at the end of the afternoon kerb session on Tuesday.
    Even though zinc is supported by strong fundamentals, given the shortage of concentratet, even the galvanizing metal is now considered bloated by investment fund buying, analysts agreed. They expect those funds to eventually lose interest and the prices to retract.

    Aluminium finished at $2,462.5/64.5 up from $2,449. Three-month nickel finished the official trading session at $15,170/175 per tonne, up from $14,800 at the end of Tuesday's final kerb. Tin for delivery in three months finished official trading at $7,545/50 per tonne, compared with $7,375 at the end of Tuesday's final kerb.

    China lists banned steel and metals projects

     
    China has published more details about the kind of steel and metal projects that will be banned under its continuing crackdown on the industries.
     
    All new tungsten, molybdenum, tin and antimony mining and smelting projects will be banned, the National Development and Reform Commission said. Also facing a ban are new zinc projects smaller than 100,000 tpy, lead projects below 50,000 tpy, copper blister smelters of 100,000 tpy and below, and all new electrolytic aluminium and magnesium smelters.
     
    In the steel sector, the list includes hot dipped galvanised projects of less than 250,000 tpy, colour-coated sheet projects below 100,000 tpy and any steel works using blast furnaces that do not meet environmental and power consumption standards.
     
    Authorities will implement the ban through withholding land approvals and preventing the projects from receiving credit from financial institutions, the head of the NDRC industry policy bureau, Liu Zhi, said on Wednesday.
     
    The NDRC also said some technologies and equipment would be phased out, including electric arc furnaces with a capacity of 10 tonnes and below,convertors with a capacity of 15 tonnes and below, and electric and reflection furnaces for producing copper. The projects and facilities need to be restricted and phased out as they are resource- and energy-intensive and environmentally unfriendly, Liu said. Growth in the steel and aluminium sectors needs to be checked as blind investments have caused overcapacity, he added. Production capacity in the steel industry will reach 470 million by the end of 2005, with 70 million tonnes of new capacity being constructed and 80 million tonnes planned,Liu said.
     
    Aluminium production capacity will reach 10.3 million tonnes by the end of this year, exceeding market demand by 2.6 million tonnes, he said.Projects which use advanced technologies and meet energy and resource consumption standards will be encouraged, the NDRC said. Areas which will receive government support include iron ore exploration, construction of large or medium-sized copper, bauxite, lead,zinc and nickel mines, and production of high precision copper and aluminum sheets, strips and foils

    Where are we going?

    中国人想一心一意埋头搞建设,但有人不允许,头一个就是日本。一百多年以来,日本已经两次打掉了中国经济大发展的历史机会。一个甲午战争,打掉了满清的洋务运动;一个“七.七”全面侵华战争,打掉了国民党号称的“十年黄金时代”。日本明治维新后的国策就是不准中国强盛,辛亥革命后又加上一条:不准中国统一。日本经过两次侵华战争已经跟中国结了血仇 ,又死皮赖脸不肯向中国人老老实实道歉以取得中国人的宽恕。日本人自己也清楚:中国一旦强大,日本就只有派“遣唐史”、当小伙计的份;那时就不是日本人肯不肯向中国人道歉的问题,而是中国人肯不肯接受日本人道歉的问题。因此日本千方百计要第叁次打掉中国崛起的机会。     

    有些中国人只忙着发大财,没看到针对中国新的战争危机正在形成,没有看到日本人第叁次又来了。不过这次打头阵的是赖在台湾的那些没当上日本人的日本人,那些拼命想当未来日本人的“二鬼子”。说是“台湾独立”,实为“台湾回归日本”。分析台海危机,首先要分析谁是危机的最大受惠人。鼓动台湾“独立”引发中美战争对日本而言是“一箭叁雕”:中美大战,两败俱伤,一举削弱日本两大强敌;顺便借刀杀人,把台湾岛内当真积极上战场去“保卫台湾”的傻瓜们除个差不多,剩下来的都是心知肚明把戏真目的的“二鬼子”。到那时再发动“台湾回归日本”运动自然水到渠成。这最符合日本利益。中国面对的实际不是什么“台湾同胞”,而是日本鬼子在台湾留下的孽种──“***二鬼子”。 台海危机实际是是日本假“***”代理人之手第叁次打掉中国重新崛起的新战争,是中国自甲午战争以来抗日战争的继续。一旦“***二鬼子”设定“***”时间表,摊牌便进入倒计时,中国想“韬光养晦”也不成了。那就是又一次“中华民族到了最危险的时候,每个人被迫着发出最后的吼声”。形势所逼,中国没有选择,不存在上不上日本人的当的问题,美国则难说。日本的如意算盘能否行得通,要看美国的算盘怎么打。美国的战略目标是保持自己的世界霸权。如果美国卷入台海冲突,中国是为主权而战,美国是为霸权而战。     

    主权问题是生死问题,打的是生死仗,只能不惜代价;霸权问题是利益问题,打的是生意仗,不能不惜代价。打生死仗是你死我活,有进无退;打生意仗是唯利是图,所以打生意仗得斤斤计较,边打算盘边打仗:中国是否直接威胁了我的世界霸权?丢了台湾会不会丢掉我的世界霸权?为保住台湾跟中国开战要付多大代价?如果战争旷日持久怎么办?如果兵力被拖在台湾海峡动弹不得给其他地方恐怖组织可乘之机怎么办?如果把中国逼急了全世界卖核武器怎么办?……对这一连串芝麻西瓜谁大谁小之类的定义和选择是美国人自己的事,中国人管不了,但美国的决心怎么下却实实在在取决中国的实力和意志。     

    网上流传的一份美国“兰德公司报告”有两条很有意思的建议,一是要“把中国炸回石器时代”,使中国至少倒退五十年;二是决不能派兵登陆中国,因为“如果我们在大陆使用了陆军,会影起严重的后果。中国能接受一驾被击落的U2,但中国很难接受一双美军的皮靴”。都炸成石器时代了还不敢登陆?自相矛盾的建议道出了一个合乎逻辑的结论:美国敢于想象跟中国打“高科技”战争,不敢想象跟中国打毛泽东的人民战争。就凭这一条,谁说毛泽东的人民战争没有战略威慑作用?现在中国要破解台湾 “独立”的陷阱,仍然离不开毛泽东。台湾海峡危机是别人强加于中国的,中国想躲也躲不掉。日本的如意算盘能不能打响要看美国,而美国的决心怎么下要***自己。按毛泽东的主张:丢掉幻想,准备斗争;针锋相对,寸土必争;人民战争;持久战等做准备,中国还有可能安然化解“***二鬼子”制造的台海危机,从此统一中国,彻底翻身。中国人生存都朝不保夕,更别谈什么继续致富了。想致富首先得保住中国的和平大环境,而毛泽东挣来的和平大环境正在遭受日本“***二鬼子”的严重威胁。所以想致富先得解决“***二鬼子”制造的台海危机。     

    二.最大最毒的“软刀子”     家贼难防,内*最毒。要破除外来的“软刀子”就必须破除来自内部的“软刀子”。来自中国内部最大最毒的“软刀子”是某些中国 “精英”极力“证明”中国 人是“劣等文化劣等人”,必须全盘西化,如此一来什么外来的“软刀子”都能畅通无阻,充分发挥。当然,“精英”自有“精英”之道,不一定直接指着鼻子骂娘。人家的高招是换个方式变相论证,借口毛泽东晚年的错误从根本上否定毛泽东和毛泽东思想。只要否定成立,“劣等文化劣等人”的帽子想躲都躲不掉。   中国人喜欢 “不以成败论英雄”,西方人喜欢“惟以成败论英雄”。几百年来西方白人打遍全球无敌手,其他一切有色人种无不屈服,莫能抗衡。于是西方白人目空一切,视一切有色人种为劣等。中国自鸦片战争起跟洋人打一仗败一仗,败一仗来一次割地赔款、丧权辱国,以至于国家破产,精神崩溃,“月亮也是外国的圆”,“量中华之物力,结与国之欢心”。到后来有些中国人没有西方国家发话屁都不敢放一个。     

    从1931年9.18到1941年珍珠港事变整整十年有余,遭受了南京大屠杀,经受了无穷伤害,国民党政府却居然还不敢对日宣战,居然还一直跟日本保持着外交关系。直到日本袭击珍珠港、美国对日宣战后的第二 天才匆匆忙忙跟着美国正式对日宣战。如此软弱无能,在人家眼里非“劣”而何?在毛泽东之前,中国面对东西方列强的侵略从来没有成功的英雄,从来只有悲剧的英雄。他们奋斗了,他们牺牲了,但他们失败了。失败就失败在他们谁也没能够改变中国任人宰割的命运。“瓜分惨祸依眉睫,呼告徒劳费齿牙”。尽管在中国人眼里他们虽死犹生,虽败犹荣,但在洋人眼里他们仍然是失败者,丝毫不能阻止列强来侵略,来任意支配中国。 唯有毛泽东真正扭转乾坤,彻底改变了中国“人为刀俎,我为鱼肉”的命运。毛泽东领导中国人顶住了一切外来干涉。 即使世界上头号超级大国美国也照样栽在毛泽东手下。美国在朝鲜跟毛泽东领导的中国军队直接较量,失败了。美国人不服气,拿越南当实验战场,间接跟毛泽东的人民战争理论再较量,又失败了 。美国“挟天子令诸侯”,利用联合国动员全世界一切可以动员的力量跟毛泽东领导的中国整整较量了二十多年,封锁中国几十年,中国不但没垮,反而成了核大国。     

    这个世界上替强者效劳的思想理论不计其数,教诲弱者屈从强者的说教浩如烟海,唯独毛泽东思想专门替受无辜弱者说话 ;教导遭受强国侵略的弱国不*寄人篱下,不*卑躬屈膝,不*主权交易,完全依*自力更生、艰苦奋斗来改变命运。无论是美国还是苏联都拿毛泽东毫无办法,打不赢,吓不倒,骗不过,困不住。绞尽脑汁也不知该如何破解毛泽东思想,只好祷告上帝保佑让毛泽东后人的毛泽东思想色彩不要那么浓。在毛泽东面前,崇拜“优胜劣败”原则的西方白人不得不承认毛泽东是历史的胜利者,不得不承认毛泽东思想厉害,不得不承认诞生了毛泽东的中华民族不是劣等民族,不得不承认孕育出毛泽东思想的中华文化不是劣等文化。毛泽东是有史以来唯一一个让资本主义的西方白人尝到失败滋味而自己始终不败的中国人 。否定了毛泽东思想,就等于承认中国文化产生不出能抗衡西方侵略中国的思想武器,不是自认劣等又是什么?中国自鸦片战争以来跟东西方外来侵略较量唯一成功的例子就是毛泽东和毛泽东思想。如果连这都否定,那还有什么可嘴硬的?“覆巢之下,岂有完卵”,“皮之不存,毛将焉附”。想见识什么叫“精英” 级“软刀子”吗?这就是。     

    有些中国人很热衷于列举中国人如何聪明能干,文化历史如何灿烂,希望由此证明中国人并非劣种,应获尊重。有些人喜欢说中国人之所以被人瞧不起是因为中国人素质低、不文明,等等。这种逻辑只适用于个人关系,不适用于国家关系。国家之间只以强者为尊,弱者再有教养也照样被人瞧不起。现实世界中的国家之间的关系本质上是弱肉强食。西方曾流行一句话:“ 为了不妨碍强者,弱者应当死去。”一个讲究和平共处,思维方式如大象犀牛之类草食动物;一个崇尚“弱肉强食”思维方式如虎豹豺狼之类肉食动物。中国人如果不了解这两种根本不同的思维方式,就永远搞不懂该如何跟人家打交道,也搞不清何为“尊重”,何为“瞧不起”,国家关系中的所谓“尊重”就是不敢贸然扑上来跟你直接较量,但保不准时不时还有意无意踹你一脚试探试探,看你还有没有那么强。如果你昏昏入睡或自己变虚,那“尊重”就变成瞧不起。尊重与瞧不起从来不是绝对的、无条件的、一劳永逸的,而只是相对的、有条件的、暂时的,随着实力对比的变化而变化。     

    人对物质财富的创造能力和吸收能力与人的精神财富密切相关,精神财富越足,物质财富的创造能力和吸收能力越强越持久,反之越弱越短暂。一个民族物质上弱并不可怕,因为这种局面可以通过奋发图强来改变;如果精神上弱那才真可怕,因为那意味着这个民族失去了将来。看看在台湾的国民党描述中国抗战史的纪录片,简直满目凄凉,一派丧气,除了怨天就是尤人:怪中国穷,怪满清留了个烂摊子,怪美国援助太少,怪共产党不听话,怪日本太强大……说来说去都是自己吃败仗有理,真是“满纸荒唐言,一把辛酸泪”。 就凭这精神状态,国民党丢了中国大陆一点都不冤。就这样还没学会好好吸取教训,难怪搞得现在自己最后一点立足之地都岌岌可危。     

    自中国有了毛泽东,有了毛泽东思想,从此在精神上彻底转弱为强,物质上也就从没落走向复兴。中国人首先扫荡了一切盲目自卑自负的错误心理:“ 我们中华民族有同自己的敌人血战到底的气概,有自立于世界民族之林的能力。” “这个军队具有一往无前的精神,决不被敌人所屈服。不论在任何艰难困苦的场合,只要还有一个人,这个人就要继续战斗下去。”“战略上藐视敌人,战术上重视敌人”。“战略上以一当十,战术上以十当一”……精神上的强大一步步导致了物质上的强大。星星之火变成了一个新中国,一穷二白的中国变成了“可上九天揽月”的世界核大国。 外国列强欺负中国一百多年无敌手,唯独碰上了毛泽东和毛泽东思想之后才束手无策。毛泽东对中国的份量有些中国人不清楚,跟毛泽东较量过的外国对手则一清二楚。朝鲜战争在毛泽东在世时被美国人忘得光光的,的的确确成了“被遗忘的战争”。中国一开始有人否定毛泽东,人家就开始想起朝鲜战争来了,修了个“朝鲜战争纪念碑”。你越鼓吹“反思”抗美援朝,人家纪念朝鲜战争就越来劲。你请人家“消气”,人家马上炸了你的使馆。。“反思”抗美援朝、否定毛泽东,等于公开告诉人家:我们不敢再反抗了,你们也别再害“中国吃惊病”了,别把进攻中国当成是不可想象的恶梦了,放心来征服吧。总之是向人家发出征服中国的邀请函。对这种自毁长城的行为听之任之等于放弃保护自己,甘愿由强转弱。     

    有些中国“精英”现在很热衷于“一切与国际接轨”,而且无条件、无保留。“与国际接轨”,有些你想接也接不上。比如引渡贪污犯,别看有些国家整天痛骂中国贪污腐败,一副疾恶如仇大义凛然,但从中国逃过去的贪污犯去一个收一个,你要引渡,它不是要保护贪污犯的“人权”,就是要你就地打官司,一拖好几年,先把贪污犯带过去的不义之财全变成他那里的律师费再说。等油水榨干自己捞足,引不引渡意思也不大了。况且司法领域很可能成为西方对付中国的下一个王牌“软刀子”。 你要盲目“接轨”,接来接去搞不好会弄得居然让自己的政府上人家法庭的被告席,求人家的青天大老爷主持公道,一下子就把中国的主权置于人家的法庭股掌之间。翻翻中国人的经历,中国人因依赖外国,或因盲目寄希望于外国而吃的亏往往比人家直接用武力来打还大。再看看苏联“休克疗法”的教训,结论:不能盲目迷信依赖外国。“与国际接轨”必须根据具体情况具体分析,不能无原则、无条件、无防范。鼓吹无条件地“与国际接轨”,本身就有点“软刀子”的味道 后记: 通过这一段时间和很多读者的交流,感觉很多朋友对毛泽东的思想还是认可的,实际上很多人的思想与其个人行为是分离的,而毛泽东晚年的许多错误与其思想也不是统一的,因此我们要看到毛泽东思想的一些精华,但我们也要看到其思想的一些不足之处。政治是经济的高级表现形式,对于中国这个大国笔者认为“内和外王”是国家的最高境界,和者贵,王者富,国家内部人民和谐相处,对外有王者的风范,因此中华民族的兴旺发达的最高境界就是“内和外王”。

    两个受害之城的比较

    法国一名叫切尔西的女记者走访了在二战中遭受浩劫的一些城市。她对日本的广岛和中国的南京两个灾难比较深重的城市记录得比较详细,摘抄如下:
     
    广岛: 被原子弹轰炸的残骸都保存完好.
    南京: 难以找到当年屠城遗址.
    广岛: 公布原子弹受害者人,精确到个位.
    南京: 大屠杀杀死难人数万人以上,纪念馆哭墙上只刻有3000个死者的名字.
    广岛: 每年举行悼念大会钟声汽笛鸣响,工厂,学校,机关停止一切工作,全城悼念.
    南京: 大屠杀纪念大会从1985年才开始,1997年才有了拉响防空警报和车船汽笛的做法,除了悼念大会会场,鲜见肃立默哀场面.
    广岛: 参加纪念大会的有5万多人,占全市人口的1/21;
    南京: 参加纪念大会人数2000左右,最多不到1万人,占全市人口的1/2800.
    两个民族对历史的记忆,为什么差别那么大? Those fucking corrupted officials, those capitalist, or rather than those being a low-cost work force, suffering and earning a tiny living… We are doing something we don't know, we don't know what we have gained or have lost. Something inside human being makes us being a human. But do you know what exists in Chinese.
     
    SHAME TO BE EASILY FORGOTTEN; WHICH SEEMS AS NEVER HAPPENED.
     
    "首相不参拜靖国神社,韩国人也不买我们的产品;首相天天参拜靖国神社,中国人还是会买我们的产品"-Cited from a fucking Japanese enterpriser.

    Future terms.

    Study tools and Vietnamese translation should follow soon :-)
     
    Abandon  放弃:确认期权失效
    Actuals 现货(LME普遍使用physical)
    Arbitrage 市场间套利
    Assay 检验分析
    Ask 要价,喊价
    At-the-Money 相等价值:期权履约价与当前期权期货合约的现价完全相同
    Backpricing 有效时间定价:生产者常用LME 结算价作为报价基准, 每天公布的结算价到次日中午有效。又称公认定价(Pricing on the Known)
    Backwardation 现货升水:现货价高于期货价(又称Back),是为逆向市场、倒价市场
    Base Metal 贱金属,基金属:除金、银、铂族以外的金属
    Bar Chart 条形图
    Basis 基差:同一种商品现货价与期货价之差
    Basis Price 基本价格,履约价格:期权交易中买卖双方商定,并按此进行交易的价格。又称敲定价格(Strik Price),通常为当前市场价
    Bear 卖空者,看跌者:与Bull正相反
    Bear Covering 结束空头部位
    Bear Market 空头市场,熊市:价格普遍下跌的市场
    Bear Position 空头部位:已卖出期货,期望以后能以较低价买进,利润为现在卖出与以后补进价之差额
    Best Orders 最佳买卖订单(Buing/Selling at Best)
    Bid 买方出价
    Bond 债券
    Bottom 底价:某时间段内的最低价
    Borrowing 借入(Borrowing metal from the market):买进近期货的同时,卖出远期货
    Break 暴跌,暴升,突破:价格出现较大波动
    Broker 经纪行,经纪人
    Bull 买空者,看涨者:与Bear相反
    Bull Market 多头市场,牛市:价格普遍上涨的市场
    Bull Position 多头部位:已买进期货,期望以后能以较高价卖出,其利润为现在买进与以后卖出价之差额
    Business Day 交易日
    Buying Hedge (Long Hedge)买进套期保值
    Buy In 补进:平仓、对冲或关闭一个空头部位
    Buy on Close 收市买进:在收市时按收市价买进
    Buy on Opening 开市买进:在开市时按开市价买进
    Call Option 看涨期权,延买期权:允许购买者按一特定的基价购买一种指定期货合约的权力。预期市价看涨时买看涨期权,如购买者判断失误,可以放弃这一购买权力,风险损失只是购买期权的保险费
    Call Price 结算价
    Cancelling Order 撤消指令:撤消前一个指令的指令
    Carrying 借入借出:LEM 对借入借出的总称,也表示一种导致借入者将其持有的金属现货存入LEM 注册仓库的借入作业
    Carrying Charge 仓储费用:持有现货商品期间所支付的保管费、保险费、损耗、利息等
    Cash 现付,现货:LEM 意为按结算价现货交易成交后第二天的现金交付;其他交易所则常指现货交易
    Cash & Carry 贷款借入:期货升水时,远期货溢价常对该期间的仓储、保险、资金成本造成影响。金属过剩时,期货升水趋势扩大,由于交易者买近期货卖远期货所需融资成本低,使银行借贷有吸引力
    Cash Commodity 现货商品
    Cash Today 次日交割:合约的交割日期为下一个交易日时
    CFTC 商品期货交易委员会:(美国的)期货交易由农业部商品交易所办公室负责管理
    Clear,Clearance 清算,结算:对期货合约进行的资金结算
    Clearing House 结算所
    Clearing Member 结算会员:结算所的会员公司,结算会员必须是交易所成员
    Clerk 场内经纪助理:经授权可代理场内经纪人之职
    Client Contract 委托合同:结算会员与非结算会员、非结算会员与其他交易者之间的合同
    Client Option 委托期权:期权买卖的任一方均非结算会员的交易
    Close 收市
    Closing Range 收市价幅
    COMEX (The New York Commodity Exchange) 纽约商品交易所
    Commission 佣金
    Commitment 承诺(或未结清权益)
    Commodities Exchange Center (CEC) 纽约商品交易中心:纽约商品交易所、纽约商业交易所(NYMEX)、纽约棉花交易所、咖啡糖可可交易所的所在地
    Commission House (Futures Commission House 或 Wire House)经纪商行 代办行
    Contango 期货升水:金属近期供货充足时, 远期价高于现货价。是为正向市场,顺价市场
    Contract 合约
    Contract Month 合约月份:期货合约进行实物交割的月份
    Coner 囤积居奇
    Cost of Carry 置存成本:期货商品交割之前,所发生的利息、仓储和装卸搬运费用
    Counterparty 合约对方
    Cover 平仓,补进:在市场上通过补进(如原有部位在空头)或回抛(如原有部位是多头)结清空盘部位
    Cross(Close hedge)买空卖空:同一个结算会员的套购套售,交叉保值
    Current Yied 当期收益:债券利息与当时的债券市价之比
    Day Order(G.F.D)当日有效订单:当日未执行则自动失效。如要在当日全部时间(含正式交易、场外交易、场前交易、午餐时间与傍晚),应注明全部市场时间(All Market)
    Day Trading 当日交易:当天交易中买进和卖出相同部位
    Daily Limit 每日价格波动幅度的限制
    Dealer 交易代表
    Declarartion Date 宣告期(履约期或有效期):期权购买者必须宣告其权力是否履行的最后日期,否则,期权将失效。LEM 的宣告期是每月的第一个星期三
    Default Notice 违约通告
    Defaulter 违约者
    Deferred Futures 远期:离交割期相对最远的期货合约月份
    Delivery 交割:期货合约买、卖双方到期以仓单形式体现的商品实物所有权的转移
    Delivery Date or Prompt Date 交割日期
    Delivery Month 交割月份(与合约月份相同)
    Delivery Notice 交割通知:一方提交通知,表示同意在指定日期交割以结束其未平仓的空头期货部位
    Delivery Point 交割地点
    Deposit 初始保证金(见Initial Margin)
    Differentials 差价(与Basis同义)
    Discretionary Account 委托帐户
    Double Option 双向期权:期权拥有者同时拥有按基本价卖出或买进ɡ钠谌?
    Equity 资金净值:按当时市价清算后,期货交易帐户剩余的资金净值
    Evening Up 对冲:通过买或卖对冲掉现有的市场部位
    Event of Default 违约事件
    Exchange Contract 交易所合约:交易双方都是结算会员的合约
    Exchange Option 交易所期权:期权买卖方都是结算会员的期权交易
    Exercise 执行,履约:期权有效期内,期权购买者宣布将实行其权力按履约价买进或卖出期货合约
    Expiration Date 到期日:期权买方可能执行期权权利的日期或最后一日
    Exchanger 交易所
    Fill 执行价
    Fill-or-Kill Order 成交或取消指令:一般指出价三次后未成交则立即取消
    First Notice Day 第一通知日:同意以现货商品交割履行期货合约,发出通知的第一天
    Floor Broker 场内经纪人
    Floor Trader (又叫Local)场内交易人:通常只为自己的账户(或由其控制的)进行交易的人
    Force Majeure 不可抗力:LME 的合约中没有此条款,遇不可抗力时,LME缓冲
    Forward 远期货,期货
    FSA 英国金融管理法案:1986年通过,随时修正
    Fundamental Analysis 基本分析法:用商品供需理论与信息进行价格分析与预测
    Futures 期货
    Futures Contract 期货合约:经批准在交易所交易大厅内签定的,商品质量、交割地、交割期等均已标准化的交易契约
    Futures Commition Merchant 期货代理商
    G.O.B.(Good Ordinary Brard)优质级:LME 用,现改用高级(High Grade)代替
    Good Till Cancelled Order(G.T.C.)除非客户撤消,否则一直有效的订单
    Granter 转让者:期权的卖方
    Hedge,Hedging 套期保值:通过在期货市场取得一个与现货交易相反部位期货合约的方法,来回避因价格波动对现货买、卖造成的损失,起到经济保险的作用
    Hedger 套期保值者
    Horizontal Spread 水平套期图利:在买进看涨或看跌期权的同时,按相同的履约价但不同的到期日,卖出同一商品种类的期权
    Initial Margin 初始保证金:取得一个期货部位所交纳的初始费用。通常为合约价值的5~10%
    Inverted Market 倒转市场:近期月份的价格高于远期月份价格的期货市场
    In Warehouse 交割仓库:LME合约中的出售地点
    Intercommodity Spread 跨商品套期图利:买进(或卖出)某种商品的期货合约,同时又卖出(或买进)相同交割月份的与买进(或卖出)商品相关的另一种商品的期货合约,日后分别进行对冲,以期获利
    Interdelivery Spread 跨月套期图利:买进(或卖出)某种商品某月的期货合约,同时又卖出(或买进)同种商品但不同月份的期货合约,日后分别进行对冲,以期获利
    Intermarket Spread 跨市套期图利:在某一个交易所买进(或卖出)某种商品的期货合约,同时又在另一个交易所卖出(或买进)相同商品相同月份的期货合约,日后分别进行对冲,以期获利
    International Commodities Clearing House(I.C.C.H.)国际商品结算所:LME委托的结算所
    Inter-Market 跨交易所:LME上下午间的闭市之间,会员们用电话进行办公室间的交易
    In-the-Money 有利价值,内在价值:按当时市价如执行期权可以实现的增加价值。看跌期权,履约价高于当前公布价;看涨期权,履约价低于当前公布的结算价
    In-the-Money Option 实值期权:具有有利价值(内在价值)的期权
    Intrinsic value 内含价值:基本同有利价值。实值期权所含内在价值的金额,是权利金的构成成分
    Inverted Market 逆向市场,倒挂市场:同一商品的现货或近期期货价格高于远期期货价格的市况
    Kerb Trading 场外交易:每场正式交易结束后,有15至25分钟,所有的金属同时在交易圈进行交易
    Last Trading Day 最后交易日:期货合约交割月份的最后一个交易日。最后交易日后尚未清算的期货合约,须通过相关现货商品或现金结算方式平仓
    Late Night Trading (Lates)晚场交易:自下午场场外交易结束到相关美国市场闭市,LME 非正式交易时间
    Lending 借出:通过卖出近期货同时补进远期货来扩展多头部位
    Limit 停板限额
    Limit Up 涨停板
    Limit Down 跌停板
    Limit Order 限价指令
    Liquid 流动性:期货买、卖与对冲交易的活跃程度与成交量的大小。交易量大而又不引起价格剧烈波动,即是流动性大
    Liquid Market 流动性市场:买卖均能较易实现的市场
    Liquidate 平仓,对冲:通过买进(或卖出)相同交割月份的同样商品期货合约来了结先前已卖出(或买进)的期货合约,或到期收、交现货商品
    LME 伦敦金属交易所
    Long 多头,买空:做多头即为通过买进期货合约开始一个交易;或是买进多于卖出
    Long Position 多头头寸,多头部位:未结算的买进期货部位
    Lot 批:一批在LME常叫一张仓单、一张合约
    Major Currency 做价货币
    Margin 保证金
    Margin Call 追加保证金要求,追加保证金通知
    Mark to the Market 空盘评估:以当前市场价(当日结算价)为基础对尚未结算的空盘部位评估,计算其账面盈亏,以确定是否要追加保证金
    Market Order 市价订单:按市场当时最优价或市价立即购买或出售一定数量期货合约的指令
    Market if Touched(M.I.T.)触价成市价订单:价格达到高于(低于)当前市价的一定水平即卖出(买进)的指令
    Matching Period 对应结算时间段
    Matching System 对应结算系统
    Maximum Price Fluctuation 最大价格波幅:在一场交易中合约价格可以上下波动的最大值
    Merchant 贸易商
    Minimum Price Fluctuation 最小价格波幅
    Nominal Price 名义价格:对一个期货月份日期的估计价,当该日期有行无市时指定该价为收盘价。当现货交易处于类似情况时,也用该价作为当前价指标
    Notice Day 通知日:易所规定的、对本月到期要准备交割期货合约的持有者发出交割书面通知的日期
    Offer 卖方出价
    Official Prices 正式价格:由LME报价委员会(Quotations Commitee)提出,每交易日13:10公布现货、三月和十五月期货的正式价
    Omnibus Account 综合账户:在国外,一期货经纪公司与另外的经纪公司共同使用的账户,交易以原经纪人的名义混合使用
    One Cancels Other(O.C.O.)非此即彼订单:由两个订单结合的交易指令,其中含一附加指令,当一个订单执行后即取消另一个订单
    Open Contracts 未平仓合约:已买卖期货合约但未进行对冲处理或实物交割
    Open Interest(op.int)空盘量,未平仓量,未结清权益:期货市场上交易的某种商品尚未结清(对冲或交割)的全部期货合约数量
    Open Order 开口定单(同Good Till Canaelled Order)
    Open Outcry 公开喊价
    Open Position 空盘部位:尚未结清的期货合约市场部位
    Opening, The 开市
    Opening Price 开市价,开盘价
    Opening Range 开市价幅:开市后第一个交易完成时的买卖价波动范围
    Option 期权,期货合约选择权:赋予购买者在协议规定的有效期内按协定价(基本价或敲定价、履约价)购买或卖出一定量商品的选择权力
    Options Committee 期权委员会
    Out-of-the-Money 无利价值:当一期权当前没有内含价值,例如当看涨期权的履约价高于当前公布的结算价或当看跌期权的履约价低于当前 结算价时,称无利价
    Out-of-the-money Option 虚值期权:不具有内涵价值的期权,相对应的是实值期权 P&S(Purchase and Sale Statment) 交易清单:经纪行为客户对冲掉原建立的市场部位后,提交客户的分类账目净盈亏额变化清单
    Physical 现货
    Position 交易部位,头寸:对市场的承诺,即未进行对冲处理的买或卖期货合约数量。对于买进者,称处于多头部位(Long);对于卖出者,称处于空头部位(Short)
    Position Limit 头寸限制:交易所限定的交易者可以持有某种期货合约的最大数量
    Pre-Market 场前交易:LME正式交易前经纪行之间的交易,场前交易可以是非常活跃和具有影响力的
    Premium (1)权利金:期权买主向卖主即时支付不再退回的费用,此为期权购买者可能的最大损失;(2)溢价,升水:期货价高过现货价的差额;(3)加价:对高于期货合约交割标准的商品应支付的额外费用
    Price(及物动词)定价:通常按正式结算价确定有关金属的价格
    Pricing-In 按预定收盘价买进
    Pricing-Out 按预定收盘价卖出
    Primary Market 初级市场:主要的现货商品初级市场
    Principal 委托人,本人货主:能够并必须履行合约上所有条件的个人或机构
    Principals Market 货主间交易:期货市场上,交易成员以货主身份在交易圈内和他们的客户一起完成交易
    Profit Taking 获利回吐
    Prompt 即付:在两天内即交割
    Prompt Date 交割日期
    Put Option 看跌期权,延卖期权
    Quatations Committee 报价委员会
    Rally 回升
    Range 波幅
    Reaction 反弹:价格在较长时间下跌后的回升
    Recovery 复苏
    Registered Representative 登记代表:应本人要求,期货经纪行雇用的经纪人
    Ring 节:LME对每一种金属的五分钟交易时间
    Ring Committee 场内交易委员会
    Ring Dealing Broker 交易会员:期货交易所全权会员组织成员
    Rings(Pits)交易场,交易池
    Round-Turn 交易回合:通过对冲或实物交割结束在市场上的多头或空头部位的完全交易过程
    Scalp 小投机:为微小利润而交易,通常在同一天内频繁买卖对冲
    Security Deposit 保证金
    Session 场:LME每天分上下场,每场分两轮,每轮中每种金属交易五分钟。每场后有15至25分钟的场外交易
    Settlement Business Day 结算营业日:指在纽约可用美元进行国际结算处理的商业银行营业的交易日
    Settlement Price 结算价格:由收市价幅决定的价格,用于计算期货市场账户的收益和亏损、追加保证金和交割的发票价格
    Short 空头:一个未结算的卖出期货部位。做空头即通过卖出期货合约开始一个交易。与之相对应的词是Long
    Short Hedge 卖出套期保值
    Short Selling 卖空:通过卖出期货合约确立一个市场部位
    Short Squeeze 轧空头,逼空:由于市场供应不足迫使价格上升的情形
    Speculate 投机:甘愿承担价格波动风险以谋取风险利润的炒买炒卖行为
    Speculator 投机者
    Spot 现货
    Spot Month 现货月:对当前期货报价的最早可以交割的月份
    Spread 价差:两个相关市场之间或相关商品之间的价格差异
    Spreading 套期图利:同时买进与卖出相关期货合约以获取价差利润的各种套利方式
    Squeeze 价格挤压:迫使某特定交割日期的价格高于其它日期的压力
    Stockist 存有货物准备出售的商人
    Stop-Loss Order 止损指令:一种当市场价格达到某一特定水平时买进或卖出的指令
    Straddle 套期图利
    Strike Price (Exercise Price)敲定格(履约价):期权合约中双方协定的相关期货商品的价格
    Switching(1)换库:LME,一个仓库的金属换成另一个仓库的;(2)转月:由一个期货合约转为另一个期货合约
    Taker 购买者
    Technical Analysis 技术分析法:利用期货商品价格、交易量、未平仓量等的历史数据,采用各种指标和分析方法来分析和预测未来价格趋势的价格分析方法
    Tender 偿付:期货合约的实物商品交割
    Tick 最小价位:期货交易中允许的最小价格变动量
    Time value 时间价值:反映期权有效时间的权利金数量
    Trade House 贸易行:进行现货交易的公司
    Trend 趋势
    Turnover 交易量
    Underlying Futures Contract 期权期货合约
    Unofficial Price 非正式价格:LME下午场交易结束时报出的各种金属的收盘价
    value 价值:在当前所有买方和卖方都满意的价格上的足够成交量
    Variation Margin 价格变动保证金:根据每天的评估决定并发出用以因价格变动而补偿损失的追加要求Volatility 易变性(年度潜在易变性): 反映期权期货合约价格变动程度的指标。由相等价值、保险费、到失效期的剩余时间、期权期货合约价格和当前利率等参数组成的公式计算
    Volume 交易量
    Warrants 仓单:储存在交易所所指定的(注册)仓库签发的可用于期货合约商品交割的商品所有权证明书,系不记名票证

    Chinese steel capacity at 400mio tonnes

    China will cap crude steel capacity at 400 million tonnes a year during the second half of this decade, as it seeks to relieve a national glut, the National Development and Reform Commission said.
     
    Some 100 million tonnes of "outdated" iron capacity and 55 million tonnes of outdated steel capacity would be eliminated, the country's top planning body said in a statement released over the weekend.
     
    China's steel capacity should satisfy the country's demand, the body said in the statement, which outlined steel targets for 2006-2010.
     
    The NDRC's targets would require a sharp reduction in capacity. Similar efforts by Beijing to rein in steel expansion this year have run counter to the industry's efforts to expand to achieve economies of scale in the face of thin margins.
     
    China's steel capacity was estimated at 419 million tonnes at the end of 2004, with another 119 million tonnes under construction, Macquarie Research analyst Jim Lennon said in a report earlier this year. Output this year is expected to reach 340 million tonnes, up 25 percent, industry officials say.
     
    The country's top steel mills, including Baoshan Iron and Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel have had to cut prices sharply this year due to overcapacity.

    Comments: As per various info. trust that after the merging of big steel mills and gervenment policy control in steel market, the steel market will be stable in 2006,even though people need the adjusting time for healing and pick up the confidence again.
     
    By far, the biggest steel mills Baosteel could only lead 20% of domestic steel market share, which means the domestic market is still infant and monopolization still has la ong way to go - the balance of supply/demand couldn't be easily sensed/controlled by fews of these giant mills. The supply chain for most of the small/medium steel mills are filled by traders/stockists, their overheating demand doesn't reflect the real capacity of end-users. Everyone is competing to enlarge the capacity and output, result in oversupply and pricing dropping, meanwhile following with the high cost of energy wastes and environment pollution.
     

    Viet Nam among top 10 nations in telephone subscription growth rate


    Viet Nam is now one of the top 10 nations worldwide with the highest annual growth rate in telephone subscription, according to the Viet Nam Post and Telecommunications Corporation (VNPT).

    The country currently has 14 million telephone subscribers or 17 telephones for every 100 people. Of the subscribers, 12 million are clients of VNPT.

    The International Data Group (IDG) Ventures Vietnam has forecasted that the country will have 35 million telephone subscribers, including 20 million mobile phone users, by 2010.

    It also predicted that Viet Nam's telecommunications market will post an annual growth rate of 25 percent in the 2006-2010 periods, and that the mobile phone market will even register a 30 percent growth rate.

    Real estate market needs support of strategic policies

     
    Some cities and provinces are paying increasing attention to real estate-related issues such as urban construction and planning. This includes a focus on encouraging all economic sectors to invest in housing projects, constructing resettlement buildings for removed families, selling State-owned houses to the people and selling houses that can be paid for in instalments.However, this policy faces some problems.

    The 2005 land price frame, which was designed to replace the 1994 frame, is facing a severe reaction from the land use right market. Partly, the sudden increase in the price frame has caused this reaction but a major reason is that the fee and tax policy hasn’t been adjusted to conform with the new higher price.Financial sources are key factors in the development of the real estate market. At the moment the problem is that we have very few financial institutions that support the real estate market.Besides, we also need some public financial policies such as tax and fee policies as well as a land and real estate assessment policies.

    In credit policies for real estate, collateral security is still impeded by many factors. Now, the real estate market needs a lot of capital from banks, but it’s very difficult for banks to extend credit to the real estate market due to their limitations on short-term capital and credit limits.It’s necessary to improve the relationship between banks and real estate enterprises. In general, land has been traded and transferred according to market price. But the State’s policy only acknowledges the land use right market (which features the sale of the right to use land). This means in this mechanism local authorities still have to intervene in the real estate market, while they currently lack the capacity to do the job effectively. In conclusion, although each real estate sector is changing in its own way, the general real estate market’s situation is considered ‘frozen’. 
    comment: Due to the fragile government policy regarding real estate in 2005, this market was not expanding as fast as people anticipated early this year, which, somehow,should effect the construction growing.

    Steel being dumped in domestic market

     
    Cost prices of building steel are currently more than VND7 million per ton. However, many producers are selling steel at less than VND7 million per ton.

    As a rule, the volume of steel consumed in construction season of one year is higher than that of the previous year. However, it seems different this year. In October, sales of enterprises in the Vietnam Steel Association totaled only 200,000 tons, around 34% down from the same period of last year.
     
    The world market for steel was dull in the reviewed month. Steel ingot prices in China fell slightly to $355 – 365 per ton. Meanwhile, Vietnamese steel manufacturers imported steel ingots at around $370 per ton so steel prices by many companies reduced by VND50 – 100 per kg. This led consumers to await for lower prices, causing the domestic market for steel to be duller. At the moment, steel stockpiles in Vietnam total about 200,000 tons.

    However, steel ingot prices have gone up again to $370 – 380 per ton. With such prices for ingots, building steel prices in the domestic market must be over VND7 million per ton otherwise producers gain no profit. Surprisingly, many steel companies in the Northern region are selling their products in the Southern market at not more than VND7 million per ton. This price is reasonable only when steel ingot price is $340 per ton. Therefore, at an irregular meeting between 22 members of the Vietnam Steel Association, a Hanoi-based manufacturer requested the association to set an indicator price and impose heavy sanction on companies that violate that price. Representative from a Southern steel company reacted, saying that if the dumping was not stopped, his company would bringing its products from the Southern to the Northern region to sell at prices of less than VND7 million per ton (including VAT).
     
    However, after the meeting he said that if such a thing happened, every producer would be in the worst situation. The Ministry of Industry has just examined the whole steel industry of Vietnam for the reason that recent development in this industry is out of plan. Meanwhile, domestic ingot output meets only 20% of home demand and the reason for this is the Ministry of Industry has set plan for steel production but many localities spontaneously grant licence to so many producers.

    Mr. Dang Huy Hiep, Chief of the Planning and Sales Department of the Southern Steel Company (SSC) said his company was still operating at its full capacity, obtaining a 10% increase in output but business results were not as expected. In such a context, the firm had to push up exports, he further noted. This year, it earned an export value of $20 million, more than 60% up over a year ago.

    Many economists forecast that many steel producers in Vietnam will go bankruptcy in the coming time because investment in this industry is too large while profit is low but risk is high.
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